I finally discovered TQQQ 10 years later. It was the best triple over 10 years. TQQQ is cap weighted and holds the best long term performing stocks over time. It is similar to SPY in what it holds but its turnover is higher which allows it the ability to identify the best performing stocks sooner.

The Stars model specifies the rebalancing rules for how much TQQQ should be held. Higher concentrations produce higher drawdown and marginal improvement in returns. The results of 8 versions of Stars are shown on my website leeekholm.com.

All of the performance greater than the S&P is due to TQQQ. This shows that volatility is essential for outperformance of the S&P. TQQQ has an average annual volatility of 4.

Every year there are investments that greatly outperforms the S&P. However, for 70 years most financial advisors have failed to come up with portfolios that outperform the S&P. The main problem is the use of low volatility approaches. Risk adjusted returns and diversification produce low volatility portfolios with the goal to minimize drawdown.

If your desire is high returns, you have to have some volatility in your portfolio. If your desire is low drawdown, you have to accept returns that are probably 5% below the S&P.