Stars

MODEL
In TQQQ Account SPY TQQQ
SPY TQQQ Total SPY TQQQ SPY TQQQ SPY SPY Cum SPY Rebalance TQQQ % %
Year Price Price $ $ $ Shares Shares $ Shares Shares % TQQQ Volatility Change Change
98 123 10,000 8,000 2,000 65 % TQQQ Up Yr 20
99 140 12,856 9,120 3,484 5.3 14 % TQQQ Down Yr 40
10,285 2,571 72 913 7 7 20 Dividend % 2
00 131 11,854 9,668 1,954 4.0 (6)
9,483 2,371 68 (417) (3) 3 20 Compound Annual Return %
01 114 9,796 8,251 1,354 3.3 (13) '98-'24 17
5,878 3,919 46 (2,565) (22) (19) 40 '98-'10 10
02 88 5,764 4,526 1,125 3.1 (23) '11-'19 21
3,458 2,305 32 (1,181) (13) (33) 40 '20-'24 32
03 111 10,831 4,357 6,262 6.6 26
4,357 6,262 32 0 0 (33) Skip Drawdown %
04 121 13,531 4,749 8,516 4.0 9 '01-'02 55
10,824 2,706 80 5,810 48 15 20 '08 47
05 125 14,464 11,149 3,031 4.0 3 '22 31
11,571 2,893 82 138 1 17 20
06 142 18,347 13,191 4,796 4.7 14
14,677 3,669 90 1,127 8 24 20
07 146 19,275 15,118 3,779 1.0 3
15,420 3,855 89 (76) (1) 24 20
08 90 9,752 9,560 0 3.0 (38)
5,851 3,901 46 (3,901) (43) (19) 40
09 111 18,915 7,197 11,347 8.3 23
7,197 11,347 46 0 0 (19) Skip
10 126 0.77 30,150 8,204 21,355 6.3 14
24,120 6,030 167 7,831 15,325 122 102 20
11 126 0.71 30,261 24,120 5,548 0 (8)
24,209 6,052 163 8,524 (505) (4) 98 20
12 142 1.08 37,287 27,356 9,199 4.0 13 52
29,829 7,457 176 6,905 1,742 12 111 20
13 185 2.6 57,886 38,778 17,972 4.7 30 141
46,308 11,577 210 4,453 6,395 35 145 20
14 206 4.1 71,088 51,402 18,292 5.3 11 58
56,870 14,218 230 3,468 4,074 20 165 20
15 204 4.8 74,395 56,302 16,635 (1) 17
59,516 14,879 238 3,100 1,756 9 173 20
16 224 5.3 83,471 65,468 16,367 1.0 10 10
66,777 16,694 237 3,150 (327) (1) 172 20
17 267 11.6 118,346 79,465 36,560 6.3 19 119
94,676 23,669 285 2,040 12,891 48 220 20
18 250 9.3 110,090 88,996 18,935 3.3 (6) (20)
88,072 22,018 273 2,368 (3,083) (12) 208 20
19 322 22 169,111 113,613 52,183 4.7 29 137
135,289 33,822 330 1,537 18,360 57 265 20
20 374 45 230,796 156,935 69,336 6.6 16 105
184,637 46,159 392 1,026 23,176 62 327 20
21 475 83 325,810 234,489 84,933 3.1 27 84
260,648 65,162 434 785 19,771 42 369 20
22 382 17 225,982 208,519 13,032 4.0 (20) (80)
135,589 90,393 231 5,317 (77,360) (203) 166 40
23 475 51 448,095 168,131 271,178 8.3 24 200
168,131 271,178 231 5,317 0 0 166 Skip
24 544 74 598,290 193,350 393,209 3.0 15 45
478,632 119,658 734 1,617 273,551 503 669 20
Model Rules
1 Rebalance at year end.
2 Rebalance TQQQ to 20% of the portfolio.
3 Rebalance TQQQ to 40% if TQQQ is down 40%.
4 Do not rebalance the first year after the bottom.
The base case for Stars is 20% TQQQ and 80% SPY.
Stars is a buy and hold model that doubles down on market
corrections where TQQQ is down more than 40%.
An up year is any year where TQQQ is not down 40%.
Drawdown is not a loss. It is only a pause in the upward progression of the portfolio.
Stars usually makes new porfolio highs every 1-2 years.
The up and down year % TQQQ can be varied.
Year SPY Stars Year SPY Stars
'98 10,000 10,000 '98 10,000 10,000
'99 11,600 12,856 '99 11,600 12,856
'00 11,100 11,854 '00 11,100 11,854
'01 9,900 9,796 '01 9,900 9,796
'02 7,800 5,764 '02 7,800 5,764
'03 10,000 10,831 '03 10,000 10,831
'04 10,900 13,531 '04 10,900 13,531
'05 11,400 14,464 '05 11,400 14,464
'06 13,300 18,347 '06 13,300 18,347
'07 14,000 19,275 '07 14,000 19,275
'08 8,800 9,752 '08 8,800 9,752
'09 11,100 18,915 '09 11,100 18,915
'10 12,600 30,150 '10 12,600 30,150
'11 12,900 30,261
'12 14,900 37,287
'13 19,700 57,886
'14 22,300 71,088
'15 22,500 74,395
'16 25,300 83,471
'17 30,700 118,346
'18 29,400 110,090
'19 38,700 169,111
'20 45,800 230,796
'21 59,300 325,810
'22 48,400 225,982
'23 61,200 448,095
'24 70,400 598,290

Star- Result

Case 100% SPY 10% TQQQ 20% TQQQ 30% TQQQ 10% TQQQ
% TQQQ up yr. 0 10 20 30 10
% TQQQ down yr. 0 20 40 60 40
Compound Annual Return %
'98-'24 8 13 17 20 16
'98-'10 2 7 10 11 10
'11-'19 13 17 21 25 17
'20-'24 14 24 32 39 32
Drawdown %
'01-'02 33 45 55 65 53
'08 34 40 47 53 40
'22 18 25 31 37 25

Stars - Relative Performance

Year Relative Performance SPY Stars
'98 10,000  10,000 
13 11,600  12,856 
'00 -3 11,100  11,854 
-7 9,900  9,796 
'02 -20 7,800  5,764 
60 10,000  10,831 
'04 16 10,900  13,531 
2 11,400  14,464 
'06 10 13,300  18,347 
0 14,000  19,275 
'08 -12 8,800  9,752 
68 11,100  18,915 
'10 46 12,600  30,150 
-2 12,900  30,261 
'12 8 14,900  37,287 
23 19,700  57,886 
'14 10 22,300  71,088 
4 22,500  74,395 
'16 0 25,300  83,471 
20 30,700  118,346 
'18 -3 29,400  110,090 
22 38,700  169,111 
'20 18 45,800  230,796 
12 59,300  325,810 
'22 -12 48,400  225,982 
72 61,200  448,095 
'24 18 70,400  598,290