Stars

MODEL
In TQQQ Account SPY TQQQ
SPY TQQQ Total SPY TQQQ SPY TQQQ SPY SPY Cum SPY Rebalance TQQQ % %
Year Price Price $ $ $ Shares Shares $ Shares Shares % TQQQ Volatility Change Change
98 123 10,000  8,000  2,000  65  % TQQQ Up Yr 20
99 140 12,856  9,120  3,484  5.3  14  % TQQQ Down Yr 40
10,285  2,571  72  913  7  7  20  Dividend % 2
00 131 11,854  9,668  1,954  4.0  (6)
9,483  2,371  68  (417) (3) 3  20  Compound Annual Return %
01 114 9,796  8,251  1,354  3.3  (13) '98-'24 18
5,878  3,919  46  (2,565) (22) (19) 40  '98-'10 10
02 88 5,764  4,526  1,125  3.1  (23) '11-'19 21
3,458  2,305  32  (1,181) (13) (33) 40  '20-'24 34
03 111 10,831  4,357  6,262  6.6  26 
4,357  6,262  32  0  0  (33) Skip Drawdown %
04 121 13,531  4,749  8,516  4.0  9  '01-'02 55
10,824  2,706  80  5,810  48  15  20  '08 49
05 125 14,464  11,149  3,031  4.0  3  '22 31
11,571  2,893  82  138  1  17  20 
06 142 18,347  13,191  4,796  4.7  14 
14,677  3,669  90  1,127  8  24  20 
07 146 19,275  15,118  3,779  1.0  3 
15,420  3,855  89  (76) (1) 24  20 
08 90 9,752  9,560  0  3.0  (38)
5,851  3,901  46  (3,901) (43) (19) 40 
09 111 18,915  7,197  11,347  8.3  23 
7,197  11,347  46  0  0  (19) Skip
10 126 0.77 30,150  8,204  21,355  6.3  14 
24,120  6,030  167  7,831  15,325  122  102  20 
11 126 0.71 30,261  24,120  5,548  0  (8) 0 
24,209  6,052  163  8,524  (505) (4) 98  20 
12 142 1.08 37,287  27,356  9,199  4.0  13  52  23
29,829  7,457  176  6,905  1,742  12  111  20 
13 185 2.6 57,886  38,778  17,972  4.7  30  141  55
46,308  11,577  210  4,453  6,395  35  145  20 
14 206 4.1 71,088  51,402  18,292  5.3  11  58  23
56,870  14,218  230  3,468  4,074  20  165  20 
15 204 4.8 74,395  56,302  16,635  (1) 17  5
59,516  14,879  238  3,100  1,756  9  173  20 
16 224 5.3 83,471  65,468  16,367  1.0  10  10  12
66,777  16,694  237  3,150  (327) (1) 172  20 
17 267 11.6 118,346  79,465  36,560  6.3  19  119  42
94,676  23,669  285  2,040  12,891  48  220  20 
18 250 9.3 110,090  88,996  18,935  3.3  (6) (20) (7)
88,072  22,018  273  2,368  (3,083) (12) 208  20 
19 322 22 169,111  113,613  52,183  4.7  29  137  54
135,289  33,822  330  1,537  18,360  57  265  20 
20 374 45 230,796  156,935  69,336  6.6  16  105  36
184,637  46,159  392  1,026  23,176  62  327  20 
21 475 83 325,810  234,489  84,933  3.1  27  84  41
260,648  65,162  434  785  19,771  42  369  20 
22 382 17 225,982  208,519  13,032  4.0  (20) (80) (31)
135,589  90,393  231  5,317  (77,360) (203) 166  40 
23 475 51 448,095  168,131  271,178  8.3  24  200  98
168,131  271,178  231  5,317  0  0  166  Skip
24 586 79 639,670  206,801  420,327  2.4  23  55  43
511,736  127,934  730  1,619  292,393  499  665  20 
25 576 67 623,734  503,003  108,501  5.0  (2) (15) (2)
498,987  124,747  702  1,862  (16,246) (28) 637  20 
Model Rules
1 Rebalance at year end.
2 Rebalance TQQQ to 20% of the portfolio.
3 Rebalance TQQQ to 40% if TQQQ is down 40%.
4 Do not rebalance the first year after the bottom.
The base case for Stars is 20% TQQQ and 80% SPY.
Stars is a buy and hold model that doubles down on market
corrections where TQQQ is down more than 40%.
An up year is any year where TQQQ is not down 40%.
Drawdown is not a loss. It is only a pause in the upward progression of the portfolio.
Stars usually makes new porfolio highs every 1-2 years.
The up and down year % TQQQ can be varied.
Year SPY Stars Year SPY Stars '20/'40 5 avg 15 avg
'98 10,000  10,000  '98 10,000  10,000  28
'99 11,600  12,856  '99 11,600  12,856  -8
'00 11,100  11,854  '00 11,100  11,854  -17
'01 9,900  9,796  '01 9,900  9,796  -43
'02 7,800  5,764  '02 7,800  5,764  86 9 
'03 10,000  10,831  '03 10,000  10,831  25 9 
'04 10,900  13,531  '04 10,900  13,531  7 12 
'05 11,400  14,464  '05 11,400  14,464  26 20 
'06 13,300  18,347  '06 13,300  18,347  5 30 
'07 14,000  19,275  '07 14,000  19,275  -50 3 
'08 8,800  9,752  '08 8,800  9,752  93 16 
'09 11,100  18,915  '09 11,100  18,915  60 27 
'10 12,600  30,150  '10 12,600  30,150  0 22 
'11 12,900  30,261  23 25 
'12 14,900  37,287  55 46  19
'13 19,700  57,886  23 32  19
'14 22,300  71,088  5 21  20
'15 22,500  74,395  12 24  22
'16 25,300  83,471  42 27  27
'17 30,700  118,346  -7 15  21
'18 29,400  110,090  54 21  23
'19 38,700  169,111  37 28  25
'20 45,800  230,796  41 33  26
'21 59,300  325,810  -31 19  24
'22 48,400  225,982  98 40  34
'23 61,200  448,095  43 38  30
'24 70,400  639,670 
Year SPY Stars Year SPY Stars '20/'40 5 avg 15 avg

Star- Result

Case 100% SPY 10% TQQQ 20% TQQQ 30% TQQQ 40% TQQQ Case 100% SPY 10% TQQQ 20% TQQQ 30% TQQQ 10% TQQQ
% TQQQ up yr. 0 10 20 40 40 % TQQQ up yr. 0 10 20 30 10
% TQQQ down yr. 0 20 40 60 40 % TQQQ down yr. 0 10 20 30 40
Compound Annual Return % Compound Annual Return %
'98-'24 8 13 17 21 19 '98-'24 8 12 15 17 16
'98-'10 2 7 10 10 8 '98-'10 2 4 6 7 10
'11-'19 13 17 21 28 28 '11-'19 13 17 21 25 17
'20-'24 14 24 32 41 35 '20-'24 14 22 27 31 32
'11-'24 13 19 25 32 30 '11-'24 13 19 23 27 22
Drawdown % Drawdown %
'01-'02 33 45 55 67 60 '01-'02 33 41 48 65 53
'08 37 43 49 62 62 '08 37 43 49 56 43
'22 18 25 31 43 43 '22 18 25 31 37 25
Relative performance, percentage points Relative performance, percentage points
'98-'24 5 9 13 11 '98-'24 4 7 9 8
'98-'10 5 8 8 6 '98-'10 2 4 5 8
'11-'19 4 8 15 15 '11-'19 4 8 12 4
'20-'24 10 18 27 21 '20-'24 8 13 17 18
'11-'24 6 11 19 17 '11-'24 5 10 14 9
Compound value using 14 year ('11-'24) returns for $1,000 investment Compound value using 14 year ('11-'24) returns for $1,000 investment
5 years 1,870 2,420 3,011 4,058 3,761 5 years 1,870 2,353 2,815 3,304 2,703
10 years 3,496 5,856 9,068 16,470 14,143 10 years 3,496 5,537 7,926 10,915 7,305
15 years 6,537 14,172 27,306 66,840 53,190 15 years 6,537 13,030 22,314 36,062 19,742
20 years 12,222 34,295 82,226 271,260 200,037 20 years 12,222 30,660 62,821 119,145 53,358
25 years 22,853 82,994 247,605 1,100,858 752,294 25 years 22,853 72,147 176,859 393,634 144,210
30 years 42,730 200,841 745,608 4,467,634 2,829,209 30 years 42,730 169,771 497,913 1,300,504 389,758
Compound value using 26 year ('98-'24) returns for $1,000 investment Compound value using 26 year ('98-'24) returns for $1,000 investment
5 years 1,469 1,842 2,192 2,594 2,386 5 years 1,469 1,762 2,011 2,192 2,100
10 years 2,159 3,395 4,807 6,727 5,695 10 years 2,159 3,106 4,046 4,807 4,411
15 years 3,172 6,254 10,539 17,449 13,590 15 years 3,172 5,474 8,137 10,539 9,266
20 years 4,661 11,523 23,106 45,259 32,429 20 years 4,661 9,646 16,367 23,106 19,461
25 years 6,848 21,231 50,658 117,391 77,388 25 years 6,848 17,000 32,919 50,658 40,874
30 years 10,063 39,116 111,065 304,482 184,675 30 years 10,063 29,960 66,212 111,065 85,850
5 year compounding factor (average of 14 year and 26 year returns)
1.67 2.13 2.60 3.33 3.07 1.67 2.06 2.41 2.75 2.40

Stars - Relative Performance

Year Relative Performance SPY Stars
'98 10,000  10,000 
13 11,600  12,856 
'00 -3 11,100  11,854 
-7 9,900  9,796 
'02 -20 7,800  5,764  5yr 15 yr
60 10,000  10,831  8
'04 16 10,900  13,531  9
2 11,400  14,464  10
'06 10 13,300  18,347  14
0 14,000  19,275  18
'08 -12 8,800  9,752  3
68 11,100  18,915  14
'10 46 12,600  30,150  22
-2 12,900  30,261  20
'12 8 14,900  37,287  21
23 19,700  57,886  28 15
'14 10 22,300  71,088  17 16
4 22,500  74,395  8 16
'16 0 25,300  83,471  9 16
20 30,700  118,346  11 16
'18 -3 29,400  110,090  6 15
22 38,700  169,111  9 15
'20 18 45,800  230,796  12 15
12 59,300  325,810  14 14
'22 -12 48,400  225,982  7 13
72 61,200  448,095  22 13
'24 20 75,291  639,670  22 12