As a model builder for over 40 years, my focus has always been simple: make money—first for the companies I worked with, and now for you, the investor.
Most financial advisors talk about risk-adjusted returns and diversification. But here’s the truth: if making money isn’t the primary goal, you’ll likely underperform both the Stars model and the S&P 500.
There are 3 types of risk worth understanding:
Wiggle risk – short-term price movement
Real risk – long-term loss when you sell
Lost opportunity cost – the price of not being in the best-performing investment
For long-term investors, short-term wiggle risk shouldn’t matter. The Stars model’s average holding period is 8 years—and after 8 years, your investment typically grows 9x. Even with a correction, you’re still above your purchase price.
But here’s the kicker:
Not being in the best version of the Stars model costs you 19 percentage points per year versus the S&P, and 24 percentage points versus the average investor.
The takeaway?
Real risk and lost opportunity cost matter more than short-term noise. If your goal is to outperform, you need to be in the best version of the Stars model.