This is extremely difficult because it requires near perfect timing. On a yearly basis the S&P rises about 75% of the time. It usually ends the year near a high. Corrections end the year about half the time at a low and the other half occur for a few months during the year.

The best long term forecast is to say the market will rise. In the long run you are right. In the next year forecast you are correct 75% of the time. On average the rise is usually about twice the prediction.

Major corrections occur only about every 8 years . Minor corrections occur every 2 years. They usually recover by year end. About half the minor corrections occur at new market highs during the year which reduces the effect on the yearly performance.

If you forecast a correction, you need to be correct on both the timing and price level. You also need to indicate how much of a correction you expect. Good luck.

Forecasting corrections may cause investors to reduce their equity holdings which means they lose opportunity if the forecast is wrong.

Most experts felt this year was overvalued and due for a correction. At the recent highs the S&P was up 19% and the Stars model was up 32%.