Can You Pick Stocks Better Than a Great Model?
The short answer? No—not for the average investor. And even for the best investors, the answer is still no when looking at their entire portfolio.
Let’s unpack why.
📉 Only about 15% of stocks outperform the S&P 500 in a given year.
📈 The odds of randomly selecting just three that beat the S&P? Nearly zero.
Now consider the Stars Model—a rules-based strategy combining roughly 600 stocks, including 75 from the S&P 500 and 50 from the TQQQ’s 100 holdings. About 60% of the model’s portfolio is weighted in stocks already outperforming the S&P.
But that’s not all:
✅ It’s a buy-and-hold strategy with an 8-year average holding period—leading to near-perfect accuracy.
✅ The two core ETFs (SPY & TQQQ) continually self-optimize, increasing exposure to winners and reducing losers—tax-free within the ETF.
✅ TQQQ alone has 100% turnover annually, providing powerful adaptability.
✅ The model is rebalanced annually using 4 defined rules that enhance performance.
The result? A portfolio that has historically returned over 32% annually for the past 14 years.
So… can you beat that?
If you’re interested in long-term, rules-based investing that actually works, the Stars Model is worth a deeper look.