Over the years, I’ve seen how dangerous that combination of event risk, large positions, and stress can be:
> A soybean trader friend built a massive position as prices rose. When the event hit, the market went limit down three days in a row. He lost everything.
> Another advisor made a fortune trading commodities, then reinvested it all in Florida land near a rumored Disney World site. The site moved—and he lost it all.
> I myself once held a large crude oil position. The stress as the trade turned against me was so severe it made me physically ill.

These experiences shaped how I think about investing. Long-term success comes from steady, disciplined exposure—not speculation around unpredictable events.

Historically, even gold has underperformed the S&P over time. The question remains: Will this time be different?