The S&P is a cap weighted index. So all this money is pouring into the largest stocks. That does not appear to be changing.

The Stars model has no view on market direction. It just holds what is going up the most. I know better than to have a view on market direction because by nature I am a contrarian. Stars has taught me that you want to buy high sell low to outperform the S&P.

The turnover in the S&P is 3%. The turnover in TQQQ is 25%. In a broad market the turnover in TQQQ could be as high as 170%. TQQQ is telling us that new leadership has not emerged yet. What then is going to cause a correction?

There is a lot of cash on the sidelines. Currently bonds are very unattractive because they are 12 percentage points below the S&P. My guess is it will take an event to cause a correction and the most likely event is a credit issue in say southern Europe. Historically they have been vulnerable.

In an event all stocks will be hit in the liquidation. At some point buyers will step in to buy the best stocks. The largest companies have the strongest financials. In this case the market leadership will not change much. Market breadth will improve very slowly because of the size of these stocks.