Before that, market conditions were entirely different—marked by two 35% corrections in the S&P 500 without any real advancement. That era is unlikely to repeat.

Now, looking at the Stars model (20% TQQQ, 80% SPY), annual returns have varied widely—ranging from -38% to +98% in just the past three years. That kind of volatility can be unsettling.

But here’s why short-term swings don’t tell the full story:

• Over a 5-year period, performance variation drops significantly—from a 126% spread in yearly returns to just 31%. The range tightens to 15% to 46%, making it 1/4 of the yearly variation.
• Over a 15-year period, variation falls even further, down to just 11% (ranging from 19% to 30%).

The takeaway? While year-to-year results can be extreme, longer-term performance smooths out significantly. Investors looking at short-term results might feel uneasy, but extending the view to 5 years or more provides a much clearer picture of stability and growth.