Over the past 100 years stocks have outperformed cash by 7% per year and bonds by 6% per year. In 2025 the S&P was up 18% (including dividends). That is 12 percentage points above cash / bonds. Over the past 15 years the S&P outperformed cash / bonds by 7 percentage points per year.

I have compared everything to the S&P because few options beat the S&P. The Stars model over the past 26 years outperformed the S&P by 13 percentage points per year. This means Stars outperforms cash / bonds by 20 percentage points per year. In the past 15 years Stars outperformed by 25 percentage points per year. With Stars the lost opportunity cost is too large to be in cash / bonds.

But what about reducing drawdown in market corrections? For buy and hold strategies drawdown is a reduction in portfolio value not a loss. Consistently calling market direction is impossible. The lost opportunity cost of trying to call market direction is 20% per year. Large corrections occur about every 5 years. In that time you will incur a lost opportunity cost of 100% which defeats the whole purpose.

Own equities 100% of the time and use the Stars buy and hold strategy for the best results.