Over the past 15 years the results are very different. Warren even with up to 50% APPL is only about equal to the S&P. This reduction of returns is partly due to his success. He is unable to scale the performance up as more want to invest. Also the S&P return is higher because tech stocks are now a larger portion of the S&P. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks most of the time. In the last 15 years Stars outperformed the S&P by 19 percentage points per year for the best version which is an annual average return of 32% per year.

How does Stars accomplish this? Stars has great stocks in its two cap weighted ETFs SPY and TQQQ but it is TQQQ that produces the incredible outperformance. TQQQ has an average annual volatility of 4. In a rising market TQQQ acts like 4 times the S&P. In a correction TQQQ falls 4 times the S&P. At the correction low TQQQ buys many more shares during rebalancing at cents on the dollar. Coming off the low TQQQ acts like 32 times the S&P if the S&P correction was 20%.

The Stars buy and hold strategy has 4 simple rules and only takes one hour per year to manage. You don’t need to know anything about stock selection or market direction. After a couple years Stars has an accuracy of 100% because it has risen so much that you never have a loss when you rebalance. In theory this implies zero risk.

The average investor over 25 years ignoring additional contributions earns $2 for ever $1 invested initially. Buying the S&P earns $7. The best version of Stars earns $117.