Over the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has delivered returns averaging 50% above its long-term average, fueled by the inclusion of more NASDAQ stocks. As a result, it’s unlikely we’ll see a return to the historical 8% annual average.

After two strong years, the Stars Model is expected to level off, with its relative performance nearing zero—meaning returns may align closely with those of the S&P and TQQQ. For 2025, the Stars Model is likely to deliver modest returns.
What about corrections?

Historically, we experience price weakness only 25% of the time, and major corrections are typically triggered by significant events—none of which appear on the horizon.

Here’s what to keep in mind:

1. S&P corrections usually range from 10% to 40%.
2. A 20% correction would bring TQQQ prices back to COVID lows, but this scenario seems unlikely.

The maximum correction for 2025 is more likely around 10% for the S&P and 40% for TQQQ.

Even though TQQQ is overvalued, it’s unlikely to fall below $50. If it does, it could present an exceptional opportunity to double down.