When you go into cash or bonds , you are calling market direction. You should always be 100% invested for maximum portfolio performance. Nobody can consistently call market direction. Also there are no models that can either. If one existed it would show up in results. Only 15% of investors outperform the S&P. The average investor underperforms the S&P by 5% per year.

When it comes to buying stocks or funds, the odds of the stock outperforming the S&P in a year is only about 30% in the current market. If the market continues to broaden out the odds may rise to 45%. The problem is what happens to the stocks that do not perform as expected. Typically these stay in a portfolio and act as a drag on portfolio performance. For that reason it is always a good idea to sell the worst 10% performers every year.

40 years ago Jack Bogel pointed out that if you can’t beat the S&P, you should buy the S&P. That raised portfolio performance about 5% per year. Recently Warren Buffet said the investor should buy the S&P.

The Stars buy and hold strategy earns twice the S&P. This results in performance that is about 13 percentage points per year above the S&P. This strategy uses the volatility of TQQQ to obtain these results. Major corrections result in more purchases at cheap prices during annual rebalancing. The weighted holdings of Stars hold the best 1.5% of all long term performers.