Probably my most controversial theory is buy high - sell low.
Most investors do the opposite. Peter Lynch said “Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds”.
For 70 years about 85% of investors have underperformed the S&P by 5% per year. Why is the S&P so hard to beat? It is a cap weighted index which means the stock percentage in the index is based on its market cap versus the total market cap of the index. (Market cap is equal to price times the number of shares.). As a stock’s price rises more than the overall market, the percentage weighting of that stock in the index increases.
The S&P is continually increasing the weighting of stocks that are rising and decreasing the weighting of stocks that are falling. Most investors are doing the exact opposite.
A typical investor has a holding period of 6 months which means they buy their whole portfolio twice a year. Usually the investor buys a stock that has fallen in price. Only about 30% of the picks will rise more than the S&P over the next year. These stocks will usually be sold when they reach an objective of 30% or maybe as high as 100%. The other70% of stock picks fall lower. Most of the time these are held because they were thought to be good buys. Over time these stocks act as a drag on the whole portfolio year after year.
Buying high is very difficult because what do you buy and how long do you hold it. Cap weighted ETFs solve this problem for you by buying high and selling low continuously .
Stars holds two cap weighted ETFs – SPY and TQQQ. In 2025 the 40% TQQQ version of Stars outperformed the average of 3 investment companies that manage $15 trillion by 21 percentage points.