Most portfolios underperform by 5% per year. Outperformance has been limited to large cap tech companies. The market breadth is narrow and valuations are stretched. Most investors are bearish over the past 15 months.

In their efforts to get higher returns some investors have resorted to alternative investments such as private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and others. These types of investments only have so many good products. They are not scalable.

Private credit is the first to fall. Financial institutions and other alternative investments are at risk. When in doubt the safest investment is the S&P. Everyone agrees that the S&P will be higher in 25 years. Every week more funds go into the S&P than anything else due to the popular target date funds that hold 60% S&P. The result of this is that the leadership of the market is very slow to change.

For 70 years the financial services industry has struggled with developing products that outperform the S&P. Partly that is due to diversification and risk adjusted returns. It is mostly due to the very few stocks that make up all of the S&P long term gains. Name me a stock you want to hold for 25 years.

The answer to better investment options lies in great cap weighted ETFs. They concentrate on the stocks with the highest cap weighting. Those stocks got that way being great performers. Over time the leadership changes and the cap weighted ETF changes to the new leadership. It all happens on its own.

The Stars buy and hold strategy holds the two ETFs SPY and TQQQ. Stars over the past 26 years has a return that is twice the S&P. Over the past 15 months Stars performance is 2% above the S&P. When compared to the average performance of Berkshire Hathaway, Blackrock, and Blackstone over the past 15 months Stars is 31 percentage points higher.