This time of year everyone looks at what financial firms think the market performance for the year will be.

Investors also look to see what sectors are expected to outperform. History has shown poor performance in both areas. If they could consistently predict outcomes, the investor results would be better.

I don’t find many if any that keep track of their performance for market direction or stock / sector recommendations. You seldom see consistent disclose of financial performance. They show return percentages but not relative performance to the S&P. This information may be shown in tables but usually not in firm advertisements unless the performance is good.

The investor gets a distorted view of how well financial firms are at making recommendations. Stars makes no predictions of market direction or stock / sector selection. It is always 100% invested in SPY and TQQQ.

About the best financial firms can do is say the market tends to rise 75% of the time. As far as stock / sector picks go, some are good but on average most underperform the S&P.

How can Stars have such a good track record? Most importantly it is buy and hold. Secondly it does the same thing every year. All of the outperformance is due to TQQQ. As the market rises it takes profits during rebalancing. In corrections it buys many more shares at huge discounts. The stocks that TQQQ holds are consistently some of the absolute best.

I follow what the financial firms think, but it has no effect on Stars.