📈 When I first wrote Earn Twice the S&P,
I advised against intra-year rebalancing due to its tendency to increase drawdowns. But with time and more data, I decided to revisit that stance.
Looking back over the past 26 years, there were 19 market corrections—yet the original model only captured 4. Curious, I analyzed the remaining 15 that happened mid-year.
Here’s what I found:
✅ 11 of those corrections came after a market rise, meaning the model would have added TQQQ at higher prices—something you want to avoid.
✅ Only 4 corrections added value to the Stars Model.
❌ The other 4 rebalanced at higher prices than year-end, ultimately reducing profitability and increasing drawdowns.
📉 The result? Intra-year rebalancing reduced returns in those years and increased volatility.
🔒 Conclusion: Staying patient and sticking to annual rebalancing continues to be the smart play for Stars.