If you can improve your investment selection accuracy you will improve your portfolio performance

This is obvious because you don’t have to make up for as many losses. How do you increase your investment selection accuracy?

Typically you earn 5% per year less than the S&P. Also the worst 10% of your portfolio is about 30 percentage points below the S&P. Sell the worst 10% of your portfolio and buy SPY. This will increase the performance of your portfolio by 3 percentage points per year. On this 10% slice of your portfolio the return is 30%.

A better option is to replace the 10% worst performer with TQQQ. This will increase your portfolio performance by 8 percentage points per year. If you were to sell the next 10% worst performer, you would increase the performance by another 7 percentage points per year. You are now 10 percentage points per year above the S&P on your whole portfolio.

The problem with most portfolios is that you are out of the market sometimes and when you are 100% invested you change investments too often. Each time you invest in something different the odds are only about 30% that you will beat the S&P over the next year. Over time you own a lot of underperforming investments.

Buy and hold strategies that hold great long term investments like SPY and TQQQ after a few years have an accuracy of 100% because the performance is so great that any sales from rebalancing are at profits because the price has risen so much. The Stars buy and hold strategy only makes two trades per year for rebalancing.

The Stars strategy holds the best 1.5% of all stocks and outperforms the S&P by a factor of 17 over the past 27 years.