Over the past 16 months we have learned several lessons that should not be forgotten.

No one can consistently call market direction. Markets can get extremely overvalued before they correct. Investors are bearish more of the time than markets. Minor corrections can quickly bring valuations in line with future forecasts.

From what I have observed most experts have been wrong over the past 16 months. They remain the most bearish ever. The market has been able to ignore event after event. The S&P is up 23% over the past 16 months. Those looking for a correction fall farther behind.

2025 was a year where breadth was very narrow. 2026 is a year of volatility. Over the past 16 months large growth stocks continue to perform well in spite of everyone’s belief that they are overvalued. The recent correction brought them down to fair value. Many had corrected 20-30% from the highs. Money continues to flow into these very large cap stocks from biweekly employees investments in the S&P and target dated funds which are 60% S&P.

Over the past 16 months Berkshire Hathaway has underperformed the S&P by 12%, Blackrock has underperformed by 13%, and Blackstone has underperformed by 41%. The chase for higher returns has not worked so far. The Stars buy and hold strategy outperformed the S&P by 18%.

In my opinion the Stars use of the cap weighted ETFs SPY and TQQQ is the best long term investment strategy available.