How does Stars produce its high return?
The Stars model consists of two parts – a trend part and a volatility part. The trend part is SPY (the S&P index). The volatility part is TQQQ (the triple of the NASDAQ). The purpose of TQQQ is to provide the extra performance of the volatility in a safe way using the rules of the Stars model.
The Stars model is a buy and hold model that does not produce losses because it does not sell to avoid further losses. Instead it doubles down on large market corrections. These corrections have to be near year end otherwise there is no doubling down. The TQQQ shares are 6 times as large at market bottoms as at market tops.
Stars’ rules will not change over time because they have been tested over 26 years in a variety of markets and have proven to work in all of them.
In the current market where the S&P is 50% above the long term average and TQQQ is extended relative to SPY, what can an investor do for 2025? Buy 10% TQQQ replacing the worst performing 10% of the portfolio. If the worst part of the portfolio is 20% below the S&P, the additional performance of the portfolio will be about 10% based on the last 14 years performance.
Currently the market is at the pre Covid highs. Stars is 100% above those highs.