What is a Model

Most financial advisers claim they have models. Their model is really more of a template that provides a mixture of financial products such as cash, bonds, stocks , and funds that meet your stated needs of return and risk level.

My definition of a model is that it needs to contain three elements:

  1. Fixed rules that do not change
  2. A performance record
  3. It must beat the S&P

Stars meets these requirements.  In my 40 years of building models, it is the only model that I have ever seen that does.  The rules for Stars will never change because they are designed to safely capture the volatility of TQQQ.

The two kinds of models that I have encountered are either pattern recognition models or moving average models. 

The problem with pattern recognition models is that they are only about 60 % accurate and they often have conflicting signals.  Stars is near 100 % accurate. 

The problem with moving average models is that they are constantly being improved by updating the moving averages.  The rules of Stars never change.

The problem with financial adviser models is that 85 % do not beat the S&P.

By my definition ALL MODELS ARE NOT MODELS!